June remains Bitcoin’s danger zone, while S&P 500 eyes summer rally

If Bitcoin continues to tumble this season, it will mark its fourth consecutive summer in the red, while TradFi aims to extend its winning streak to three.

Bitcoin is facing a potential fourth straight summer loss if it ends the 2025 stretch in the red, while the S&P 500 will log its third straight seasonal rally if its winning streak continues. 

From 2020 to 2024, the S&P 500 logged eight positive July and August performances, while Bitcoin (BTC) had six. So, while their summer trends aren’t entirely decoupled, the divergence has become clear in June. Since 2020, Bitcoin has posted just one positive June, while the S&P 500 has seen only two negative ones over the same span.

A closer look at the past few years shows that Bitcoin’s summer slumps have less to do with seasonal patterns and more to do with crypto-native shocks and economic trends, such as China’s mining ban, halving cycles and post-COVID inflation.

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